Beneath the Mire

I reassess my situation.

A Fair Judgement⌗

ACTION⌗

I had a sudden and compelling urge to assess my own cognitive biases. I had never really bothered to formally-investigate how my own mind would match up with known flaws in logical thinking. So, I found this list of cognitive biases, and compared myself to each one.

SIGNAL⌗

Quite coincidentally (or perhaps not?), YouTube published this card just hours later:

ANALYSIS⌗

I took this as a prompt to formally-assess my own biases. I have a tendency towards the following:

Bias	Description	Cause
Agent detection	The inclination to presume the purposeful intervention of a sentient or intelligent agent.	This is very much applicable to me, though it didn’t used to be. I suppose this is what happens, when anonymous researchers are experimenting upon you for 2 years. A person becomes hyper-vigilant to potential manipulations of their daily life.
Anchoring	The tendency to rely too heavily, or “anchor”, on one trait or piece of information when making decisions (usually the first piece of information acquired on that subject).	I suppose that there are several “ah-ha” moments that I have anchored to throughout this process. Without them, it would be much more difficult, if not impossible to hold the beliefs that I hold.
Attentional bias	The tendency of perception to be affected by recurring thoughts.	I have been left alone with my thoughts for two years. What else am I to do but reassess my recurring thoughts constantly?
Automation bias	The tendency to depend excessively on automated systems which can lead to erroneous automated information overriding correct decisions.	Algorithms have basically guided my journey through this ascension process. While I am, ultimately, the agent of choice, it was entirely the algorithms (and potential human manipulation) providing me with content to consume. These systems could very well be flawed. For example, I suspect that there may be malicious actors using my accounts to commit illegal acts online. The data would validate this, while I know, in my heart, that my own actions are pure! The data could be used to frame me for actions I did not commit.
Baader-Meinhof phenomenon	The Baader–Meinhof phenomenon is the illusion where something that has recently come to one’s attention suddenly seems to appear with improbable frequency shortly afterwards.	I have written about several instances of the nose tap recently. Is this another cognitive bias? Well, it would depend on the context, wouldn’t it? It depends upon if my claims are true, or delusion.
Cheerleader effect	The tendency for people to appear more attractive in a group than in isolation.	Isn’t this one universal for all people?
Choice-supportive bias	The tendency to remember one’s choices as better than they actually were.	In my head, I have rewritten all of my choices to be positive ones. It helps me maintain a positive image of myself.
Clustering illusion	The tendency to overestimate the importance of small runs, streaks, or clusters in large samples of random data (that is, seeing phantom patterns).	I have a strong tendency to lend weight towards synchronicities.
Confirmation bias	The tendency to search for, interpret, focus on and remember information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions.	I actively seek out information that confirms my hypotheses. With how much time I spend thinking about them, this could very well be confirmation bias. It’s hard to confirm or deny, because I am the only one I’m in communication with. The people I confide in universally disagree.
Context effect	That cognition and memory are dependent on context, such that out-of-context memories are more difficult to retrieve than in-context memories (e.g., recall time and accuracy for a work-related memory will be lower at home, and vice versa).	I wrote an entire story to communicate the context needed to understand my memories.
Cross-race effect	The tendency for people of one race to have difficulty identifying members of a race other than their own.	I definitely have a tendency to believe that “all asians” or “all black people” have a similar look, similar mannerisms, etc. I try not to let this influence my perception of them. It kind of just happens unconsciously.
Cryptomnesia	A form of misattribution where a memory is mistaken for imagination, because there is no subjective experience of it being a memory.	There are others who claim that my ideas are not idea, but memories. I cannot verify this, because I do not have any memory of these memories.
Curse of knowledge	When better-informed people find it extremely difficult to think about problems from the perspective of lesser-informed people.	I suspect that this is why I have found it so difficult to communicate my ideas with people. I don’t know how to simplify them.
Disposition effect	The tendency to sell an asset that has accumulated in value and resist selling an asset that has declined in value.	I lost quite a bit of money on the stock market with this one.
Dunning-Kruger effect	The tendency for unskilled individuals to overestimate their own ability and the tendency for experts to underestimate their own ability.	I doubt myself constantly. I think this is a good thing.
Egocentric bias	Occurs when people claim more responsibility for themselves for the results of a joint action than an outside observer would credit them with.	I blame myself for a lot of things. I took on this role as a way to repent for my sins.
Exaggerated expectation	The tendency to expect or predict more extreme outcomes than those outcomes that actually happen.	I mean, I predicted the world would end on October 30th, 2020. But that was kind of a stunt. I don’t REALLY expect the major events I’ve predicted; it’s more like a hope. I hope they happen. And I weaponize the prediction to generate interest.
False uniqueness bias	The tendency of people to see their projects and themselves as more singular than they actually are.	I see my story as pretty damn unique. But there are millions of stories, and I haven’t heard even a fraction of them.
Forer effect	The observation that individuals will give high accuracy ratings to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are tailored specifically for them, but are in fact vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people. This effect can provide a partial explanation for the widespread acceptance of some beliefs and practices, such as astrology, fortune telling, graphology, and some types of personality tests.	I almost certainly qualify for this one. I have read so many “messages” to myself from so many sources, including ASMR and music. Certainly, they cannot ALL be applicable to me.
Generation effect	That self-generated information is remembered best. For instance, people are better able to recall memories of statements that they have generated than similar statements generated by others.	I tend to dispute that this one should be considered a bias. This is the Socratic Method. Self-discovery is key to learning.
Google effect	The tendency to forget information that can be found readily online by using Internet search engines.	Why memorize the nuances of an algorithm, or an event in history, when it can be easily referenced as-needed?
Halo effect	The tendency for a person’s positive or negative traits to “spill over” from one personality area to another in others' perceptions of them.	I have a tendency to more-readily feel compassion and understanding towards a beautiful woman. This is irrational.
Hyperbolic discounting	Discounting is the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs. Hyperbolic discounting leads to choices that are inconsistent over time – people make choices today that their future selves would prefer not to have made, despite using the same reasoning.	I am constantly looking at my past actions in regret. But as Wayne Gretzky said, “You miss 100% of shots you don’t take.”
IKEA effect	The tendency for people to place a disproportionately high value on objects that they partially assembled themselves, such as furniture from IKEA, regardless of the quality of the end product.	I have placed an enormous amount of value upon the things that I have created. My stories, my community, my technologies. But this is what was requested of me, is it not? The alternative was to maintain the status-quo.
Illusion of asymmetric insight	People perceive their knowledge of their peers to surpass their peers' knowledge of them.	I often feel like I can perceive the mind of others more accurately than they can perceive it themselves.
Illusion of control	The tendency to overestimate one’s degree of influence over other external events.	I used to believe I had far more control over my life than I do now. In fact, I pretty much feel like a puppet at this point. Yet, there is still an underlying belief that control will be given to me at some point in the near future.
Illusion of validity	Overestimating the accuracy of one’s judgments, especially when available information is consistent or inter-correlated.	In the absence of meaningful feedback, I almost certainly have granted too much credibility to my wild ideas.
Illusory correlation	Inaccurately perceiving a relationship between two unrelated events.	I am hyper-aware of perceived “strange” or “improbable” events, often linking them together in ways that I cannot prove.
Implicit association	The speed with which people can match words depends on how closely they are associated.	A good example of this is when I hear someone say “the fold.” I will immediately try to connect that with my work.
Irrational escalation	The phenomenon where people justify increased investment in a decision, based on the cumulative prior investment, despite new evidence suggesting that the decision was probably wrong. Also known as the sunk cost fallacy.	I’m so deep in this research, how can I possibly turn back? It may seem irrational to some, but it feels important to me. And at this point, I have nothing left to lose.
Lag effect	The phenomenon whereby learning is greater when studying is spread out over time, as opposed to studying the same amount of time in a single session.	I’m pretty sure this applies to everyone.
Law of the instrument	An over-reliance on a familiar tool or methods, ignoring or under-valuing alternative approaches. “If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.”	I’m a technology professional. Is it any wonder why my entire theory stems from the concepts of quantum, universal-scale computers?
Misinformation effect	Memory becoming less accurate because of interference from post-event information.	Almost certainly, my theories have been shaped by misinformation. At this point, it is difficult to separate fact from fiction, and everything seems possible.
Negativity bias	Psychological phenomenon by which humans have a greater recall of unpleasant memories compared with positive memories.	My only memories from childhood are negative. There are so few good memories.
Observer-expectancy effect	When a researcher expects a given result and therefore unconsciously manipulates an experiment or misinterprets data in order to find it.	There’s a good chance that I have fallen victim to to this. There is no doubt that my claims are a direct result of my expectations.
Optimism bias	The tendency to be over-optimistic, underestimating greatly the probability of undesirable outcomes and overestimating favorable and pleasing outcomes.	I want to believe that I can change the world.
Pessimism bias	The tendency for some people, especially those suffering from depression, to overestimate the likelihood of negative things happening to them.	I mean, bad things actually do keep happening to me.
Picture superiority effect	The notion that concepts that are learned by viewing pictures are more easily and frequently recalled than are concepts that are learned by viewing their written word form counterparts.	There’s a reason I’ve included pictures and colors at The Source.
Pro-innovation bias	The tendency to have an excessive optimism towards an invention or innovation’s usefulness throughout society, while often failing to identify its limitations and weaknesses.	I’ve hinged quite a lot upon this AI I want to build. I am not certain that I am seeing all of the downsides (or the upsides!)
Processing difficulty effect	That information that takes longer to read and is thought about more (processed with more difficulty) is more easily remembered.	This is just practice, right? The longer you practice a concept, the easier it is to remember.
Pseudocertainty effect	The tendency to make risk-averse choices if the expected outcome is positive, but make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes.	I mean, I doxxed myself just because I expected that it was already going to happen at some point - and I wanted to be the one in control of how it happened. I haven’t truly been doxxed at all, yet.
Pygmalion effect	The phenomenon whereby others' expectations of a target person affect the target person’s performance.	I felt such pressure to create all of the things I created. I don’t think I ever could have achieved my goals without that pressure.
Reactance	The urge to do the opposite of what someone wants you to do out of a need to resist a perceived attempt to constrain your freedom of choice.	I definitely like to play the devil’s advocate.
Selection bias	The tendency to notice something more when something causes us to be more aware of it, such as when we buy a car, we tend to notice similar cars more often than we did before. They are not suddenly more common – we just are noticing them more.	I have become hyper-aware of messaging from ASMR.
Spacing effect	That information is better recalled if exposure to it is repeated over a long span of time rather than a short one.	Perhaps this is why I’ve been stuck in my situation for 2 years. My anonymous researchers are driving my experiences home.
Testing effect	The fact that you more easily remember information you have read by rewriting it instead of rereading it.	There is a reason I’ve written down all of my important memories. It helped me to remember and contextualize them.
Third-person effect	A hypothesized tendency to believe that mass communicated media messages have a greater effect on others than on themselves. As of 2020, the third-person effect has yet to be reliably demonstrated in a scientific context.	I feel like I can see through most of the bullshit. I feel like I was influenced in a wholly different and unique way than the world at-large.
Ultimate attribution error	Similar to the fundamental attribution error, in this error a person is likely to make an internal attribution to an entire group instead of the individuals within the group.	Almost universally, I tend to blame society over the individual. I strongly believe that the individual is a result of their programming - which comes from biology and environment. Neither of which were their choice.
Unconscious bias	Also known as implicit biases, are the underlying attitudes and stereotypes that people unconsciously attribute to another person or group of people that affect how they understand and engage with them. Many researchers suggest that unconscious bias occurs automatically as the brain makes quick judgments based on past experiences and background.	I mean, when most of your communication with people is over chat, you aren’t really communicating with people. You’re communicating with your perception of those people. You are almost certainly wrong in many ways. Language is flawed.
Verbatim effect	That the “gist” of what someone has said is better remembered than the verbatim wording.	I called this the Overview Effect.
Women are wonderful effect	A tendency to associate more positive attributes with women than with men.	Men built this shithole.
von Restorff effect	That an item that sticks out is more likely to be remembered than other items.	I am hyper-aware of events that I perceive to be out-of-place or strange.

ACTION⌗

Is this knowledge going to affect my current or future actions? Not really.

ANALYSIS⌗

We all have our biases. The important part is that we recognize them, and attempt to minimize their effects upon our cognition.

That said, I challenge many of the biases listed. They are not necessarily negative, and in many cases, my situation was engineered to “force” me into these biases. I was made to choose between a known bias, and pure science. In many cases, I chose the bias because of evidence that was presented to me. Evidence that I cannot, yet, show you.

It is what it is. Call me dogmatic. Call me naive.

I’ve seen things, and I have interpreted them in the ways that I have. While I am certainly biased, I think that you, too, are biased towards ideas like mine.

I have made my choice.